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Predicting position of Selected Countries in the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia Using Neural Networks and Decision Tree C4.5
Oral Presentation
Paper ID : 1011-11THCONF
Authors
1faculty member
2university of tehran
3Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic)
Abstract
Introduction: The aim of this study was predicting position of selected countries in the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia.
Methodology: This study was conducted on two qualitative (setting indices) and quantitative (collecting data from selected countries) steps. Semi-structured qualitative and depth interviews was conducted with 24 elites that aware of the issue of study with non-randomly and purposeful procedure. Interviews revealed that 237 indexes can predict success of countries at the FIFA World Cup and 5 components of the political, economic, social, cultural, technological and sporting as theoretical model (PEST+ S) were classified at three levels of macro, meso and micro. Information of 26 selected Indexes was collected for 38 countries that was selected with non-randomly and Available procedure, in 40-years period, since 1978 Argentina FIFA World Cup to 2014 Brazil. On the next step, to test the conceptual model, to compare the predicted 26 indexes with actual values in 2010 and 2014.
Results: The results showed that MLP and C4.5 methods had less error at predicting the position of countries in 2018. In final step, 26 indexes in 2018 was estimated and position of selected countries was predicted in 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia.
Discussion: According to MLP results, Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan and South Korea, with position of 1 from the Asian continent will qualify to FIFA World Cup. As well as Belgium and Portugal, According the predicted position of 4 will ascend to the semifinals. Also According to C4.5 results, Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan and South Korea, from the Asian continent will qualify to FIFA World Cup and Iran and South Korea with position of 2 will ascend to Eighth- final. As well as Germany and Argentina, According the predicted position of 5 will ascend to the finals.
Methodology: This study was conducted on two qualitative (setting indices) and quantitative (collecting data from selected countries) steps. Semi-structured qualitative and depth interviews was conducted with 24 elites that aware of the issue of study with non-randomly and purposeful procedure. Interviews revealed that 237 indexes can predict success of countries at the FIFA World Cup and 5 components of the political, economic, social, cultural, technological and sporting as theoretical model (PEST+ S) were classified at three levels of macro, meso and micro. Information of 26 selected Indexes was collected for 38 countries that was selected with non-randomly and Available procedure, in 40-years period, since 1978 Argentina FIFA World Cup to 2014 Brazil. On the next step, to test the conceptual model, to compare the predicted 26 indexes with actual values in 2010 and 2014.
Results: The results showed that MLP and C4.5 methods had less error at predicting the position of countries in 2018. In final step, 26 indexes in 2018 was estimated and position of selected countries was predicted in 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia.
Discussion: According to MLP results, Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan and South Korea, with position of 1 from the Asian continent will qualify to FIFA World Cup. As well as Belgium and Portugal, According the predicted position of 4 will ascend to the semifinals. Also According to C4.5 results, Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan and South Korea, from the Asian continent will qualify to FIFA World Cup and Iran and South Korea with position of 2 will ascend to Eighth- final. As well as Germany and Argentina, According the predicted position of 5 will ascend to the finals.
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